As everyone in BC remembers, the polling companies haven’t been getting it right when it comes to elections for a while.

 

Adrian Dix and the provincial NDP were supposed to win the BC Provincial Election by a landslide in May 2013 against the Liberals: he didn’t.

 

The Federal NDP, under Thomas Mulcair, were projected to win over the Federal Conservatives. Again, no dice.

 

As everyone in the polling industry tries to rationalize where things went wrong with their “modeling” in the aftermath of yesterday’s US election results, it is time to take a look at what has been a consistent indicator of the outcome in all three races: SOCIAL MEDIA ENGAGEMENT.

 

I know, I know what you’re thinking – social media is for the kids. There is no way it has any bearing on what happens in the confines of the voting booth.

 

But, in the wise words of President Elect Trump: WRONG.

 

In all three cases, the winning party’s candidate had consistently better engagement on their posts during the election cycle and more followers.

 

Let’s take a quick snapshot of Hillary vs. Trump.

In followers here’s the breakdown of each candidate:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Trump

13,471,615

13,935,613

3.4 million

Clinton

8,888,227

10,692,350

3.4 million

Here’s just the engagement on their parallel posts at 7AM on election day from Facebook:
hillary-eday-facebook-post
trumps-eday-facebook-post

 

Both Facebook posts have a similar number of likes, but look at how many people shared Trump’s post vs. Clinton’s: 19,626 to her 9,955.

On Twitter it was even more telling…

Donald’s 1st tweet on Election day got over 555,699 likes.

 

trump-eday-twitter-maga

 

We look at “likes” because sometimes the retweet numbers can be deceiving – people can retweet with both positive and negative comment, but people are less likely to ♥ a tweet that they hate.

 

Hillary’s first tweet on Election Day got only approximately 15,000 likes.

 

hillary-first-tweet-of-eday

 

In fact, Hillary’s most liked tweet of the day came in after 3PM and was an indicator of how the night was going to go for her.

 

hillary-3pm-tweet

 

If you look at Trump’s tweets over the last three months, he consistently had more engagement (in the ‘Like’ department) over Hillary. As we move into the next election, hopefully, we will start to realize that the Twitter bird may be the new canary.

 

 

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